Image Credit- Getty
The competition for the top two slots in the current World Test Championship cycle is becoming more fierce with 12 series (30 Tests) remaining. Based on the final cycle’s percentage scores of Australia and India, 66.67 and 58.8, respectively, teams will aim to reach 60% in order to qualify for the Lord’s final. Here is a glance at their ranking and likelihood of making it.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s victory at the Oval maintains them in the running for a top-two finish. They will finish with 69.23, which will almost definitely get them to the championship game, if they win all six of their remaining games. They can still stay in the running if they win five of their six games, bringing their score to 61.54. They play Australia and New Zealand at home for four of the six remaining Test matches.
England
Following their shocking loss to Sri Lanka at The Oval, England is no longer able to surpass the 60% threshold in this cycle. With victories in their six remaining Tests, their current best result is 57.95. That might still be plenty if further outcomes turn out as planned.
If India dominates the other teams, for example, Australia can finish second if they score no more than 42 points from the remaining seven Test matches out of 84 available points, and assuming the other teams do not score lower than 57.95. India must score no more than 58 points and maintain a score below 57.95 if Australia wins.
However, if England drop more points – five wins and a draw will reduce their percentage to 54.92 – they will need even more help from other teams.
India
With a respectable percentage of 68.52, India leads the table, but they still have the most games left—ten—of any team. They need 63 more points to maintain their percentage above 60 (they qualified for the 2023 final with 58.8), and they can get those points with five wins and a tie. They need seven wins to match their current score, which would raise their overall percentage to 69.3, but six wins will bring the percentage up to 64.03.
Australia
Australia, who are now in second place, need to score 47 more points from their last seven Test matches to finish over 60%. Either four victories or three victories and three draws will get them there. Their ultimate position will be largely determined by the number of points they score during the five-Test home series against India.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh’s impressive 2-0 series victory over Pakistan has raised their percentage to 45.83 and placed them in fourth place in the points standings. They will move up to 72.92 if they win all six of the remaining Test matches, but they will remain at 56.25 if they win four of the six.
Pakistan
In addition to losing 2-0 to Bangladesh, Pakistan’s poor over-rates cost them six points. At the beginning of the series, their percentage was 36.66; by the end, it was 19.05. If they win each of their final seven Tests, they may reach a maximum score of 59.52 from here.
New Zealand
In this cycle, New Zealand has only participated in six of the fourteen Test matches. Asia will host five of their eight remaining Test matches. To finish on 60%, they must score at least 65 of the 96 points that are available. It’s a difficult task considering that three of those Tests will be held in India. That translates to five victories and a few ties (or six wins).
South Africa
South Africa will finish on 69.44, which will almost probably take them to the final, if they win each of their next six Test matches. Aside from what may be a challenging two-Test series in Bangladesh, they have home series against Pakistan and Sri Lanka later in the year.
West Indies
After four series, the West Indies have only managed 20 points out of a possible 108. They can only end on 43.59% even if they win their final four Test matches.